There’s a chance of snow in the forecast for Seattle this week!
We have good news or bad news, depending on how you feel about snow in Seattle. Some of us love how the lightest snowfall shuts down the city for the day, while others could do without the inconvenience. This is expected to be a strong El Niño winter, which means that Seattle should get a warm and dry winter with a low chance of snow.
That being said, you may have noticed the snow icon popping up on your phone’s weather app recently! Wondering if we’re going to get snowfall in Seattle this week? According to the current weather forecast for Seattle, there is a chance of snow showers starting on Thursday, January 11 turning into a 40-50% chance of snow on Friday and Saturday accompanied by unusually frigid temperatures for us. A total accumulation of 4 inches of snow could occur. At the very least Seattle can expect temperature highs in the high 20s to low 30s this weekend, so be prepared to bundle up! If we do see any snow in Seattle this week, you may want to think twice before driving in it. See last year’s ice storm videos for reference.
Read on for more info about this winter’s potential snowfall in Seattle!
According to The Old Farmer’s Almanac 2023-2024 winter forecast for the country, “Snowfall will be above normal across most snow-prone areas (except for the Pacific Northwest).” The PNW will be “relatively cold and dry” while other states enjoy a snowy winter wonderland, although there is hope for snow in mid-January.
That tracks with the National Weather Service 30-year average data for snowfall in Seattle, which shows that on average the first snowfall in Seattle occurs by December 26. The earliest first snowfall in Seattle was recorded on October 27, 1971. The data also finds that Seattle gets 5.6 inches of snow on average every season.
Even if you’d prefer a snow-free winter in Seattle, don’t celebrate just yet. A dry winter could have negative repercussions for Seattle. According to NOAA, “Drought development could occur in the interior Pacific Northwest given the chance for drier-than-average conditions.” We already had a dry summer and fall, and the trend is expected to continue with an El Niño winter.
“We need rain and snow in a big way… [but] statistically, it’s not looking good,” reports Mike Everett on king5.com. A mild winter with low precipitation here in the Pacific Northwest could lead to a poor mountain snowpack, the article explains. That said, Everett also says that typical El Niño winter is “an observation, not a law.” Anything could happen!
That brings us to a recent deep dive by Seattle Met, which points out that “two of Seattle’s snowiest winters were El Niños.” The El Niño February of 2019 saw a total snowfall of 21.0 inches in Seattle and the El Niño January of 1969 had a total snowfall of 67.5 inches!
Although those winters were categorized as moderate or weak El Niños while this winter is predicted to be a strong one, that can also be an unreliable indicator of snow in Seattle. After all, the winter of 1965–66 was considered a strong El Niño and Seattle still saw a total of 22.9 inches of snowfall that season.
Historical odds of a white Christmas in Seattle: about 4%.
This year? Probably less than that.#wawx pic.twitter.com/7qUSz5cyfF
— NWS Seattle (@NWSSeattle) December 11, 2023
Even with a strong El Niño winter in the forecast, Seattle could still get a surprise snowfall in early 2024. We didn’t see any snow in December but the current forecast shows the chance for some snow accumulation in Seattle on this coming Saturday, January 13 as extremely cold air moves in. We will keep this post updated as the forecast develops!